Cartusia Kartuzy 1–0 Flota Świnoujście

Cartusia Kartuzy

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Flota Świnoujście

11/8/2025

III Liga - Group 2 · Group II - 16Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Cartusia Kartuzy42%

×Draw25%

Flota Świnoujście33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cartusia KartuzyExpected goals in this matchFlota Świnoujście

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.28

Cartusia Kartuzy

1.48

Flota Świnoujście

1.28

Cartusia Kartuzy creates 16% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 68 away

1.39

creates per match

1.38

1.19

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Cartusia Kartuzy

1.39

Flota Świnoujście

1.38

allows per match

Cartusia Kartuzy

1.19

Flota Świnoujście

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cartusia Kartuzy+0.00on par

Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartusia Kartuzy ↓

Flota Świnoujście →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Cartusia Kartuzy or draw

67%

Cartusia Kartuzy or Flota Świnoujście

75%

Draw or Flota Świnoujście

58%

Winning margin

Cartusia Kartuzy wins by 2+

20%

Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Cartusia Kartuzy 1+ goals

77%

Cartusia Kartuzy 2+ goals

43%

Cartusia Kartuzy 3+ goals

19%

Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals

72%

Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals

37%

Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Cartusia Kartuzy (draw refunded)

56%

Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartusia Kartuzy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Flota Świnoujście away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartusia Kartuzy attack 1.39 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.38 + Cartusia Kartuzy defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cartusia Kartuzy scores more

42%

level

25%

Flota Świnoujście scores more

33%

Cartusia Kartuzy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cartusia Kartuzy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff