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Floro vs Tromsdalen Uil — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Floro
Floro
PST
12:00
Tromsdalen Uil
Tromsdalen Uil
6/13/20212. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Florø stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Floro41%
×Draw23%
Tromsdalen Uil36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Floro
1.71
Tromsdalen Uil
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

creates per match

Floro
1.63
Tromsdalen Uil
1.30

allows per match

Floro
1.89
Tromsdalen Uil
1.78

finishing

Floro+0.00on par
Tromsdalen Uil+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floro ↓

Tromsdalen Uil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Floro or draw
64%
Floro or Tromsdalen Uil
77%
Draw or Tromsdalen Uil
59%

Winning margin

Floro wins by 2+
21%
Tromsdalen Uil wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Floro 1+ goals
82%
Floro 2+ goals
51%
Floro 3+ goals
24%
Tromsdalen Uil 1+ goals
80%
Tromsdalen Uil 2+ goals
47%
Tromsdalen Uil 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Floro (draw refunded)
53%
Tromsdalen Uil (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floro at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

Tromsdalen Uil away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floro attack 1.63 + Tromsdalen Uil defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tromsdalen Uil attack 1.30 + Floro defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Floro scores more
41%
level
23%
Tromsdalen Uil scores more
36%

Floro at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Floro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Floro vs Tromsdalen Uil — Match Preview

Floro face Tromsdalen Uil on June 13, 2021 in this 2. Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Floro host Tromsdalen Uil at Florø stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.