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Floro vs Førde — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Floro
Floro
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Førde
Førde
5/16/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 7Florø stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Floro14%
×Draw15%
Førde71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Floro
1.24
Førde
2.92

Førde creates 135% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Floro
0.85
Førde
2.15

allows per match

Floro
3.69
Førde
1.62

finishing

Floro+0.00on par
Førde+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floro ↓

Førde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Floro or draw
29%
Floro or Førde
85%
Draw or Førde
86%

Winning margin

Floro wins by 2+
5%
Førde wins by 2+
51%

Team goals

Floro 1+ goals
71%
Floro 2+ goals
35%
Floro 3+ goals
13%
Førde 1+ goals
94%
Førde 2+ goals
78%
Førde 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Floro (draw refunded)
16%
Førde (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floro at home — creates 0.85, concedes 3.69 · 13 matches

Førde away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floro attack 0.85 + Førde defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.24

Førde attack 2.15 + Floro defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Floro scores more
14%
level
15%
Førde scores more
71%

Førde at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Førde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Floro 0–1 Førde

Førde beat Floro 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on May 16, 2024.

The match was played at Florø stadion in Florø.