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Førde vs Floro — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Førde
Førde
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Floro
Floro
9/7/20243. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 20Førde Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Førde67%
×Draw16%
Floro17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Førde
2.92
Floro
1.43

Førde creates 104% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Førde
2.08
Floro
0.77

allows per match

Førde
2.08
Floro
3.77

finishing

Førde+0.00on par
Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Førde ↓

Floro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Førde or draw
83%
Førde or Floro
84%
Draw or Floro
33%

Winning margin

Førde wins by 2+
47%
Floro wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Førde 1+ goals
94%
Førde 2+ goals
78%
Førde 3+ goals
55%
Floro 1+ goals
76%
Floro 2+ goals
42%
Floro 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Førde (draw refunded)
80%
Floro (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Førde at home — creates 2.08, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

Floro away — creates 0.77, concedes 3.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Førde attack 2.08 + Floro defence 3.77 → ÷2 → 2.92

Floro attack 0.77 + Førde defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Førde scores more
67%
level
16%
Floro scores more
17%

Førde at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Førde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 1: Førde 4–0 Floro

Førde beat Floro 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Førde Stadion in Førde.