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Floro vs Brumunddal — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Floro
Floro
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Brumunddal
Brumunddal
10/1/20233. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 22Florø stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Floro58%
×Draw19%
Brumunddal23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Floro
2.41
Brumunddal
1.47

Floro creates 64% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Floro
2.12
Brumunddal
1.58

allows per match

Floro
1.35
Brumunddal
2.69

finishing

Floro+0.00on par
Brumunddal+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floro ↓

Brumunddal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Floro or draw
77%
Floro or Brumunddal
81%
Draw or Brumunddal
42%

Winning margin

Floro wins by 2+
37%
Brumunddal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Floro 1+ goals
91%
Floro 2+ goals
69%
Floro 3+ goals
43%
Brumunddal 1+ goals
77%
Brumunddal 2+ goals
43%
Brumunddal 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Floro (draw refunded)
72%
Brumunddal (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floro at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Brumunddal away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floro attack 2.12 + Brumunddal defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.41

Brumunddal attack 1.58 + Floro defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Floro scores more
58%
level
19%
Brumunddal scores more
23%

Floro at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Floro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Floro 3–2 Brumunddal

Floro beat Brumunddal 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Florø stadion in Florø.