Brumunddal 5–1 Floro: Result & Stats

Brumunddal

FT

5 – 1

Floro

6/4/2023

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 8SH-banen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Brumunddal53%

×Draw21%

Floro26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrumunddalExpected goals in this matchFloro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.46

Brumunddal

2.13

Floro

1.46

Brumunddal creates 46% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

2.08

creates per match

1.50

1.42

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Brumunddal

2.08

Floro

1.50

allows per match

Brumunddal

1.42

Floro

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brumunddal+0.00on par

Floro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brumunddal ↓

Floro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Brumunddal or draw

74%

Brumunddal or Floro

79%

Draw or Floro

47%

Winning margin

Brumunddal wins by 2+

31%

Floro wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Brumunddal 1+ goals

88%

Brumunddal 2+ goals

63%

Brumunddal 3+ goals

35%

Floro 1+ goals

77%

Floro 2+ goals

43%

Floro 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Brumunddal (draw refunded)

67%

Floro (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brumunddal at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.42 · 26 matches

Floro away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.19 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brumunddal attack 2.08 + Floro defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 2.13

Floro attack 1.50 + Brumunddal defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Brumunddal scores more

53%

level

21%

Floro scores more

26%

Brumunddal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Brumunddal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff