Floreşti 3–3 Victoria Bardar: Result & Stats

Floreşti

AET

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Victoria Bardar

5/19/2023

Super Liga · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsBolshaya Sportivnaya Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Floreşti33%

×Draw22%

Victoria Bardar45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FloreştiExpected goals in this matchVictoria Bardar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

2.00

Floreşti

1.69

Victoria Bardar

2.00

Victoria Bardar creates 18% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 16 away

1.31

creates per match

1.69

2.31

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Floreşti

1.31

Victoria Bardar

1.69

allows per match

Floreşti

2.31

Victoria Bardar

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Floreşti+0.00on par

Victoria Bardar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floreşti ↓

Victoria Bardar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Floreşti or draw

55%

Floreşti or Victoria Bardar

78%

Draw or Victoria Bardar

67%

Winning margin

Floreşti wins by 2+

16%

Victoria Bardar wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Floreşti 1+ goals

82%

Floreşti 2+ goals

50%

Floreşti 3+ goals

24%

Victoria Bardar 1+ goals

86%

Victoria Bardar 2+ goals

59%

Victoria Bardar 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Floreşti (draw refunded)

42%

Victoria Bardar (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floreşti at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.31 · 64 matches

Victoria Bardar away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floreşti attack 1.31 + Victoria Bardar defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.69

Victoria Bardar attack 1.69 + Floreşti defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Floreşti scores more

33%

level

22%

Victoria Bardar scores more

45%

Victoria Bardar at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Victoria Bardar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff