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Flora Tallinn vs Bintang Lair — Eerste Divisie 2019

Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
CANC
21:00
Bintang Lair
Bintang Lair
5/14/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 16Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Flora Tallinn53%
×Draw19%
Bintang Lair28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flora Tallinn
2.65
Bintang Lair
1.91

Flora Tallinn creates 39% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 16 away

creates per match

Flora Tallinn
1.67
Bintang Lair
1.31

allows per match

Flora Tallinn
2.50
Bintang Lair
3.63

finishing

Flora Tallinn+0.00on par
Bintang Lair+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora Tallinn ↓

Bintang Lair →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Flora Tallinn or draw
72%
Flora Tallinn or Bintang Lair
81%
Draw or Bintang Lair
47%

Winning margin

Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
34%
Bintang Lair wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
93%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
74%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
48%
Bintang Lair 1+ goals
85%
Bintang Lair 2+ goals
57%
Bintang Lair 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
66%
Bintang Lair (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora Tallinn at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

Bintang Lair away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora Tallinn attack 1.67 + Bintang Lair defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.65

Bintang Lair attack 1.31 + Flora Tallinn defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Flora Tallinn scores more
53%
level
19%
Bintang Lair scores more
28%

Flora Tallinn at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Flora Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Flora Tallinn vs Bintang Lair — Match Preview

Flora Tallinn face Bintang Lair on May 14, 2023 in this Eerste Divisie fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Flora Tallinn host Bintang Lair at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.