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Bintang Lair vs Flora Tallinn — Eerste Divisie 2019

Bintang Lair
Bintang Lair
CANC
23:00
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
1/25/2023Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 3Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Bintang Lair30%
×Draw19%
Flora Tallinn51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bintang Lair
1.91
Flora Tallinn
2.51

Flora Tallinn creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 12 away

creates per match

Bintang Lair
1.56
Flora Tallinn
1.33

allows per match

Bintang Lair
3.69
Flora Tallinn
2.25

finishing

Bintang Lair+0.00on par
Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bintang Lair ↓

Flora Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Bintang Lair or draw
49%
Bintang Lair or Flora Tallinn
81%
Draw or Flora Tallinn
70%

Winning margin

Bintang Lair wins by 2+
15%
Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Bintang Lair 1+ goals
85%
Bintang Lair 2+ goals
57%
Bintang Lair 3+ goals
30%
Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
92%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
71%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Bintang Lair (draw refunded)
37%
Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bintang Lair at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.69 · 16 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bintang Lair attack 1.56 + Flora Tallinn defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.91

Flora Tallinn attack 1.33 + Bintang Lair defence 3.69 → ÷2 → 2.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bintang Lair scores more
30%
level
19%
Flora Tallinn scores more
51%

Flora Tallinn at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Flora Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bintang Lair vs Flora Tallinn — Match Preview

Bintang Lair face Flora Tallinn on January 25, 2023 in this Eerste Divisie fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bintang Lair host Flora Tallinn at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.