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Flint vs Mjøndalen II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Flint
Flint
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mjøndalen II
Mjøndalen II
8/24/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 18Flint ESSO Arena A KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Flint66%
×Draw17%
Mjøndalen II17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flint
2.81
Mjøndalen II
1.39

Flint creates 102% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Flint
2.08
Mjøndalen II
0.85

allows per match

Flint
1.92
Mjøndalen II
3.54

finishing

Flint+0.00on par
Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint ↓

Mjøndalen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Flint or draw
83%
Flint or Mjøndalen II
83%
Draw or Mjøndalen II
34%

Winning margin

Flint wins by 2+
46%
Mjøndalen II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Flint 1+ goals
94%
Flint 2+ goals
76%
Flint 3+ goals
52%
Mjøndalen II 1+ goals
75%
Mjøndalen II 2+ goals
40%
Mjøndalen II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Flint (draw refunded)
80%
Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 0.85, concedes 3.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint attack 2.08 + Mjøndalen II defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.81

Mjøndalen II attack 0.85 + Flint defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Flint scores more
66%
level
17%
Mjøndalen II scores more
17%

Flint at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Flint will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flint vs Mjøndalen II

Flint beat Mjøndalen II 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Flint ESSO Arena A KG in Tolvsrød.