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Flint vs Mjøndalen II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Flint
Flint
FT
2 – 2
Mjøndalen II
Mjøndalen II
8/23/20213. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 3Flint ESSO Arena D KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Flint35%
×Draw21%
Mjøndalen II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flint
1.83
Mjøndalen II
2.08

Mjøndalen II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Flint
2.00
Mjøndalen II
2.50

allows per match

Flint
1.67
Mjøndalen II
1.67

finishing

Flint+0.00on par
Mjøndalen II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint ↓

Mjøndalen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Flint or draw
56%
Flint or Mjøndalen II
79%
Draw or Mjøndalen II
65%

Winning margin

Flint wins by 2+
18%
Mjøndalen II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Flint 1+ goals
84%
Flint 2+ goals
54%
Flint 3+ goals
28%
Mjøndalen II 1+ goals
87%
Mjøndalen II 2+ goals
61%
Mjøndalen II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Flint (draw refunded)
44%
Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Mjøndalen II away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint attack 2.00 + Mjøndalen II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Mjøndalen II attack 2.50 + Flint defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Flint scores more
35%
level
21%
Mjøndalen II scores more
44%

Mjøndalen II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mjøndalen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flint vs Mjøndalen II

Flint and Mjøndalen II drew 2-2 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on August 23, 2021.

The match was played at Flint ESSO Arena D KG in Tolvsrød.