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Flint City Bucks vs Ann Arbor — USL League Two 2026

Flint City Bucks
Flint City Bucks
FT
1 – 0
Ann Arbor
Ann Arbor
7/8/2023USL League TwoUSL League Two · Central Conference - 15Atwood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Flint City Bucks62%
×Draw19%
Ann Arbor19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flint City Bucks
2.41
Ann Arbor
1.28

Flint City Bucks creates 88% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Flint City Bucks
3.06
Ann Arbor
1.56

allows per match

Flint City Bucks
1.00
Ann Arbor
1.75

finishing

Flint City Bucks+0.00on par
Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint City Bucks ↓

Ann Arbor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Flint City Bucks or draw
81%
Flint City Bucks or Ann Arbor
81%
Draw or Ann Arbor
38%

Winning margin

Flint City Bucks wins by 2+
40%
Ann Arbor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Flint City Bucks 1+ goals
91%
Flint City Bucks 2+ goals
69%
Flint City Bucks 3+ goals
43%
Ann Arbor 1+ goals
72%
Ann Arbor 2+ goals
37%
Ann Arbor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Flint City Bucks (draw refunded)
76%
Ann Arbor (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint City Bucks at home — creates 3.06, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Ann Arbor away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint City Bucks attack 3.06 + Ann Arbor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.41

Ann Arbor attack 1.56 + Flint City Bucks defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Flint City Bucks scores more
62%
level
19%
Ann Arbor scores more
19%

Flint City Bucks at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Flint City Bucks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Flint City Bucks 1–0 Ann Arbor

Flint City Bucks beat Ann Arbor 1-0 in USL League Two on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Atwood Stadium in Flint, Michigan.