Ann Arbor 2–2 Flint City Bucks: Result & Stats

Ann Arbor

FT

2 – 2

Flint City Bucks

6/17/2023

USL League Two · Central Conference - 10Hollway Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Ann Arbor36%

×Draw22%

Flint City Bucks41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ann ArborExpected goals in this matchFlint City Bucks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.82

Ann Arbor

1.69

Flint City Bucks

1.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

1.93

creates per match

2.28

1.36

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Ann Arbor

1.93

Flint City Bucks

2.28

allows per match

Ann Arbor

1.36

Flint City Bucks

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ann Arbor+0.00on par

Flint City Bucks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ann Arbor ↓

Flint City Bucks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Ann Arbor or draw

59%

Ann Arbor or Flint City Bucks

78%

Draw or Flint City Bucks

64%

Winning margin

Ann Arbor wins by 2+

18%

Flint City Bucks wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Ann Arbor 1+ goals

82%

Ann Arbor 2+ goals

50%

Ann Arbor 3+ goals

24%

Flint City Bucks 1+ goals

84%

Flint City Bucks 2+ goals

54%

Flint City Bucks 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Ann Arbor (draw refunded)

47%

Flint City Bucks (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ann Arbor at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Flint City Bucks away — creates 2.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ann Arbor attack 1.93 + Flint City Bucks defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.69

Flint City Bucks attack 2.28 + Ann Arbor defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ann Arbor scores more

36%

level

22%

Flint City Bucks scores more

41%

Flint City Bucks at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Flint City Bucks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff