Flekkerøy 2–4 jerv: Result & Stats

Flekkerøy

FT

2 – 4

jerv

2/26/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Arkicon Arena Flekkerøy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Flekkerøy52%

×Draw20%

jerv27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlekkerøyExpected goals in this matchjerv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.58

Flekkerøy

2.24

jerv

1.58

Flekkerøy creates 42% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 18 away

2.25

creates per match

1.17

2.00

allows per match

2.22

creates per match

Flekkerøy

2.25

jerv

1.17

allows per match

Flekkerøy

2.00

jerv

2.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flekkerøy+0.00on par

jerv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flekkerøy ↓

jerv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Flekkerøy or draw

73%

Flekkerøy or jerv

80%

Draw or jerv

48%

Winning margin

Flekkerøy wins by 2+

32%

jerv wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Flekkerøy 1+ goals

89%

Flekkerøy 2+ goals

65%

Flekkerøy 3+ goals

38%

jerv 1+ goals

79%

jerv 2+ goals

47%

jerv 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Flekkerøy (draw refunded)

66%

jerv (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flekkerøy at home — creates 2.25, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

jerv away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flekkerøy attack 2.25 + jerv defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.24

jerv attack 1.17 + Flekkerøy defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Flekkerøy scores more

52%

level

20%

jerv scores more

27%

Flekkerøy at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Flekkerøy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff