Flekkerøy 2–1 Eik-Tønsberg: Result & Stats

Flekkerøy

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Eik-Tønsberg

A. Richstad 46'

O. Rønningen 37'

M. Rygel 86'

9/21/2024

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Cemo Arena Flekkerøy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Flekkerøy47%

×Draw25%

Eik-Tønsberg28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlekkerøyExpected goals in this matchEik-Tønsberg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.21

Flekkerøy

1.63

Eik-Tønsberg

1.21

Flekkerøy creates 35% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 32 away

1.57

creates per match

1.00

1.41

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Flekkerøy

1.57

Eik-Tønsberg

1.00

allows per match

Flekkerøy

1.41

Eik-Tønsberg

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flekkerøy+0.00on par

Eik-Tønsberg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flekkerøy ↓

Eik-Tønsberg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Flekkerøy or draw

72%

Flekkerøy or Eik-Tønsberg

75%

Draw or Eik-Tønsberg

53%

Winning margin

Flekkerøy wins by 2+

24%

Eik-Tønsberg wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Flekkerøy 1+ goals

80%

Flekkerøy 2+ goals

48%

Flekkerøy 3+ goals

22%

Eik-Tønsberg 1+ goals

70%

Eik-Tønsberg 2+ goals

34%

Eik-Tønsberg 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Flekkerøy (draw refunded)

62%

Eik-Tønsberg (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flekkerøy at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Eik-Tønsberg away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.69 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flekkerøy attack 1.57 + Eik-Tønsberg defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.63

Eik-Tønsberg attack 1.00 + Flekkerøy defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Flekkerøy scores more

47%

level

25%

Eik-Tønsberg scores more

28%

Flekkerøy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Flekkerøy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

O. Rønningen← T. Kongerud

31'

M. Madsen

37'

O. Rønningen

46'

M. Brændsrød← S. Mathisen

46'

A. Richstad

48'

S. Valand

59'

S. Eide Blikås← L. Takvam

72'

W. Johnsen← S. Valand

72'

P. Dovland← S. Haaland

81'

H. Danielsen← J. Sannes

81'

E. Muhle← B. Andersen

86'

M. Rygel

90'

A. Knezovic

90+3'

S. Ystanes

90+4'

D. W. Johnsen

Flekkerøy

Eik-Tønsberg

1

Jørgensen

2

⚽

Rygel

22

Gunnerød

3

Roberg

19

▼

Sannes

11

Nygaard

8

Nygaard

16

▼

Andersen

15

Midtgarde

27

▼

Mathisen

24

▼

1

14

27

5

15

40

⚽

Richstad

4

▼

Kongerud

21

Gamachis

23

▼

Haaland

3

Lien

9

▼

Valand

Manager: M. Johansen

29'▲O. Rønningen←▼T. Kongerud

72'▲W. Johnsen←▼S. Valand

72'▲P. Dovland←▼S. Haaland

Flekkerøy substitutes

2Rønningen6Johnsen10Dovland7Nahiry13Kristiansen17Fredriksen18Hauge20Sørum30Brandal

Manager: K. Kristoffersen

46'▲M. Brændsrød←▼S. Mathisen

59'▲S. Eide Blikås←▼L. Takvam

81'▲H. Danielsen←▼J. Sannes

81'▲E. Muhle←▼B. Andersen

Eik-Tønsberg substitutes

10Brændsrød5Blikås6Danielsen7Muhle9Sørum12Hansen14Gojani18Aasmundsen17Knutsson