Eik-Tønsberg 2–1 Flekkerøy: Result & Stats

Eik-Tønsberg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Flekkerøy

M. Rygel 68', 23'

S. Valand 82' (pen)

6/8/2024

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Tønsberg Gressbane KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Eik-Tønsberg51%

×Draw23%

Flekkerøy26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eik-TønsbergExpected goals in this matchFlekkerøy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.29

Eik-Tønsberg

1.88

Flekkerøy

1.29

Eik-Tønsberg creates 46% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

1.73

creates per match

1.12

1.45

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Eik-Tønsberg

1.73

Flekkerøy

1.12

allows per match

Eik-Tønsberg

1.45

Flekkerøy

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eik-Tønsberg+0.00on par

Flekkerøy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eik-Tønsberg ↓

Flekkerøy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Eik-Tønsberg or draw

74%

Eik-Tønsberg or Flekkerøy

77%

Draw or Flekkerøy

49%

Winning margin

Eik-Tønsberg wins by 2+

29%

Flekkerøy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Eik-Tønsberg 1+ goals

85%

Eik-Tønsberg 2+ goals

56%

Eik-Tønsberg 3+ goals

29%

Flekkerøy 1+ goals

72%

Flekkerøy 2+ goals

37%

Flekkerøy 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Eik-Tønsberg (draw refunded)

66%

Flekkerøy (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eik-Tønsberg at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.45 · 33 matches

Flekkerøy away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eik-Tønsberg attack 1.73 + Flekkerøy defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.88

Flekkerøy attack 1.12 + Eik-Tønsberg defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eik-Tønsberg scores more

51%

level

23%

Flekkerøy scores more

26%

Eik-Tønsberg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eik-Tønsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

M. Rygel

57'

M. Braendsrod

63'

E. Nahiry← L. Eftevaag

68'

M. Rygel

72'

A. Fredriksen← N. Brandal

72'

A. Sørum← M. Madsen

75'

D. W. Johnsen

82'

S. ValandPenalty

85'

S. Aasmundsen← B. Andersen

89'

M. Braendsrod

90+1'

E. Muhle← J. Myrbakk

Eik-Tønsberg

Flekkerøy

1

Knezović

22

You

14

▼

15

40

4

30

▼

Brandal

8

▼

Eftevaag

3

Lien

6

Johnsen

9

⚽

Valand

1

Jørgensen

2

⚽2

22

3

6

11

16

▼

20

15

10

9

▼

Myrbakk

Manager: K. Kristoffersen

85'▲S. Aasmundsen←▼B. Andersen

90+1'▲E. Muhle←▼J. Myrbakk

Eik-Tønsberg substitutes

18Aasmundsen7Muhle5Blikås13Nordahl25Holseter-Karlsen19Sannes24Takvam27Bergmann23Knutsson

Manager: M. Johansen

63'▲E. Nahiry←▼L. Eftevaag

72'▲A. Fredriksen←▼N. Brandal

72'▲A. Sørum←▼M. Madsen

Flekkerøy substitutes

7Nahiry17Fredriksen20Sørum13Kristiansen18Fredriksen

2. Division - Group 1: Eik-Tønsberg 2–1 Flekkerøy

Eik-Tønsberg beat Flekkerøy 2-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on June 8, 2024.

Goals: M. Rygel (23', 68'), S. Valand (82' pen).

The match was played at Tønsberg Gressbane KG in Tønsberg.

Eik-Tønsberg vs Flekkerøy — 2. Division - Group 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 1: Eik-Tønsberg 2–1 Flekkerøy