Flekkerøy 1–1 Arendal: Result & Stats

Flekkerøy

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arendal

S. Richardsen 63'

M. Ramsland 69'

3/29/2025

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Cemo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Flekkerøy43%

×Draw23%

Arendal34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlekkerøyExpected goals in this matchArendal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.50

Flekkerøy

1.72

Arendal

1.50

Flekkerøy creates 15% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 65 away

1.57

creates per match

1.60

1.41

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Flekkerøy

1.57

Arendal

1.60

allows per match

Flekkerøy

1.41

Arendal

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flekkerøy+0.00on par

Arendal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flekkerøy ↓

Arendal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Flekkerøy or draw

66%

Flekkerøy or Arendal

77%

Draw or Arendal

57%

Winning margin

Flekkerøy wins by 2+

22%

Arendal wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Flekkerøy 1+ goals

82%

Flekkerøy 2+ goals

51%

Flekkerøy 3+ goals

25%

Arendal 1+ goals

78%

Arendal 2+ goals

44%

Arendal 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Flekkerøy (draw refunded)

56%

Arendal (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flekkerøy at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Arendal away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.86 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flekkerøy attack 1.57 + Arendal defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Arendal attack 1.60 + Flekkerøy defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Flekkerøy scores more

43%

level

23%

Arendal scores more

34%

Flekkerøy at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Flekkerøy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

M. Ramsland

61'

A. Osterud← R. Lovseth

63'

67'

69'

73'

73'

77'

J. Myrbakk← M. Victorio

78'

L. Eftevaag← D. W. Johnsen

79'

H. Byklum

90'

A. Fredriksen← S. Richardsen

Flekkerøy

Arendal

1

2

4

16

19

11

▼

Victorio

17

Suggelia

18

Nygaard

21

▼

Lovseth

7

Johansen

8

⚽

1

2

3

22

30

6

▼

Johnsen

9

Skeie

21

Gamachis

7

▼

Nahiry

11

Kloster

14

⚽

▼

Richardse

Manager: S. Skeie

73'▲H. Byklum←▼E. Nahiry

78'▲L. Eftevaag←▼D. W. Johnsen

90'▲A. Fredriksen←▼S. Richardsen

Flekkerøy substitutes

13Kristiansen5Quranolli8Eftevaag10Henriksen17Fredriksen20Sorum27Kristensen40Byklum

Manager: V. Hansen

61'▲A. Osterud←▼R. Lovseth

77'▲J. Myrbakk←▼M. Victorio

Arendal substitutes

13Strindholm5Sundo6Eriksen9Myrbakk14Knutsen20Osterud28Tobiassen