Arendal 2–1 Flekkerøy: Result & Stats

Arendal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Flekkerøy

S. Lille-Løvø 17' (pen)

J. Williams 14'

S. Osestad 80'

4/14/2024

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2Norac Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Arendal61%

×Draw20%

Flekkerøy19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArendalExpected goals in this matchFlekkerøy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.12

Arendal

2.16

Flekkerøy

1.12

Arendal creates 93% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

2.29

creates per match

1.12

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Arendal

2.29

Flekkerøy

1.12

allows per match

Arendal

1.12

Flekkerøy

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arendal+0.00on par

Flekkerøy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arendal ↓

Flekkerøy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Arendal or draw

81%

Arendal or Flekkerøy

80%

Draw or Flekkerøy

39%

Winning margin

Arendal wins by 2+

38%

Flekkerøy wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Arendal 1+ goals

88%

Arendal 2+ goals

63%

Arendal 3+ goals

36%

Flekkerøy 1+ goals

67%

Flekkerøy 2+ goals

31%

Flekkerøy 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Arendal (draw refunded)

76%

Flekkerøy (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arendal at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.12 · 69 matches

Flekkerøy away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arendal attack 2.29 + Flekkerøy defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.16

Flekkerøy attack 1.12 + Arendal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Arendal scores more

61%

level

20%

Flekkerøy scores more

19%

Arendal at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Arendal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

S. Ystanes

14'

J. Williams

17'

S. Lille-LøvøPenalty

32'

J. Koko

52'

T. Ness

56'

A. Fredriksen

59'

L. Eftevaag← W. Johnsen

61'

A. Marić← J. Koko

77'

A. Alemseged← S. Lille-Løvø

77'

O. Rønningen← A. Kloster

80'

S. Osestad

82'

E. Lereng

90+1'

M. Haga← J. Williams

90+1'

A. Basic← T. Ness

Arendal

Flekkerøy

1

22

14

5

15

40

⚽

4

17

3

6

▼

Johnsen

11

▼

1

17

4

16

2

3

8

▼

Koko

23

▼

Ness

10

Kvinge

9

⚽

▼

Lille-Løv

7

⚽

▼

Williams

Manager: V. Hansen

61'▲A. Marić←▼J. Koko

77'▲A. Alemseged←▼S. Lille-Løvø

90+1'▲M. Haga←▼J. Williams

90+1'▲A. Basic←▼T. Ness

Arendal substitutes

13Marić11Alemseged14Haga20Basic6Pllana19Ibishi25Arnesen27Skjævestad26Jacobsen

Manager: M. Johansen

59'▲L. Eftevaag←▼W. Johnsen

77'▲O. Rønningen←▼A. Kloster

Flekkerøy substitutes

8Eftevaag2Rønningen13Kristiansen20Sørum27Birkeland29Hamre

2. Division - Group 1: Arendal 2–1 Flekkerøy

Arendal beat Flekkerøy 2-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on April 14, 2024.

Goals: J. Williams (14'), S. Lille-Løvø (17' pen), S. Osestad (80').

The match was played at Norac Stadion in Arendal.

Arendal vs Flekkerøy — 2. Division - Group 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 1: Arendal 2–1 Flekkerøy