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Fleetwood Town vs Shrewsbury — League Two 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
Preview
14:00
Shrewsbury
Shrewsbury
9/5/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 5Highbury Stadium
Big match
48%
Fleetwood Town
model favours
48%28%24%

Shrewsbury score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Fleetwood Town48%
×Draw28%
Shrewsbury24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.34
Shrewsbury
0.85

Fleetwood Town creates 58% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.52
Shrewsbury
0.74

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
0.96
Shrewsbury
1.17

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.35scores less
Shrewsbury-0.05on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Shrewsbury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
76%
Fleetwood Town or Shrewsbury
72%
Draw or Shrewsbury
52%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
23%
Shrewsbury wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
74%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
39%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
15%
Shrewsbury 1+ goals
57%
Shrewsbury 2+ goals
21%
Shrewsbury 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
67%
Shrewsbury (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 12 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.17 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.52 + Shrewsbury defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.34

Shrewsbury attack 0.74 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
48%
level
28%
Shrewsbury scores more
24%

Fleetwood Town at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 30% of Shrewsbury’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Fleetwood Town
Balanced
Shrewsbury
Direct / counter-attacking
48%Possession44%
68%Pass accuracy60%
12.1Shots11.5
1.32xGBiggest gap0.91
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Fleetwood TownShrewsbury

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Fleetwood Town
2
Draws
4
Shrewsbury
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 40%
2–23–11–30–13–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
WWWWD
Shrewsbury
WWDDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fleetwood Town face Shrewsbury (League Two)

League Two returns with Fleetwood Town hosting Shrewsbury. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fleetwood Town host Shrewsbury at Highbury Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.