Fleetwood Town 0–3 Shrewsbury: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Shrewsbury

D. Udoh 80'

J. Vela 72'

R. Bowman 49'

12/26/2021

League One · Round 24Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Fleetwood Town44%

×Draw28%

Shrewsbury28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchShrewsbury

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.00

Fleetwood Town

1.34

Shrewsbury

1.00

Fleetwood Town creates 34% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 152 away

1.30

creates per match

0.86

1.14

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.30

Shrewsbury

0.86

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.14

Shrewsbury

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Shrewsbury+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Shrewsbury →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

72%

Fleetwood Town or Shrewsbury

72%

Draw or Shrewsbury

56%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

21%

Shrewsbury wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

74%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

39%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

15%

Shrewsbury 1+ goals

63%

Shrewsbury 2+ goals

26%

Shrewsbury 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

61%

Shrewsbury (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.14 · 138 matches

Shrewsbury away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.39 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.30 + Shrewsbury defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Shrewsbury attack 0.86 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

44%

level

28%

Shrewsbury scores more

28%

Fleetwood Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Vela

Shrewsbury · M

8.9

Match Events

35'

C. Conn-Clarke← G. Garner

40'

49'

60'

63'

72'

J. Vela↳ D. Udoh

77'

C. Johnson← C. Hayes

80'

D. Udoh↳ J. Vela

86'

R. Pyke← R. Bowman

86'

S. Cosgrove← D. Udoh

90+1'

J. Daniels← N. Ogbeta

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodShrewsbury

Overview

53%Possession47%

5Total Shots11

2Corners4

5Fouls12

Shots

5Total Shots11

2On Target7

1Off Target4

2Blocked0

1Inside Box5

4Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

442Total Passes397

308Accurate Passes276

70%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

0Offsides4