Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fleetwood Town vs Port Vale — League Two 2025

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
Preview
15:00
Port Vale
Port Vale
3/26/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 37Highbury Stadium
Big match
38%
Port Vale
model favours
36%26%38%

Port Vale score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Fleetwood Town36%
×Draw26%
Port Vale38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.35
Port Vale
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 33 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.44
Port Vale
1.42

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
1.36
Port Vale
1.27

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par
Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Port Vale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
62%
Fleetwood Town or Port Vale
74%
Draw or Port Vale
64%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
16%
Port Vale wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
74%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
39%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
15%
Port Vale 1+ goals
75%
Port Vale 2+ goals
40%
Port Vale 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
49%
Port Vale (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.36 · 25 matches

Port Vale away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.27 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.44 + Port Vale defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Port Vale attack 1.42 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
36%
level
26%
Port Vale scores more
38%

Port Vale at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Port Vale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 18% of Port Vale’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Fleetwood Town fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Fleetwood Town
Defensively solid
Port Vale
Balanced
48%Possession50%
69%Pass accuracy66%
11.9ShotsBiggest gap12.4
1.91xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Fleetwood TownPort Vale

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Fleetwood Town
3
Draws
2
Port Vale
Avg goals: 3.4BTTS: 80%
0–13–31–11–32–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
WDDD
Vale
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fleetwood Town face Port Vale (League Two)

League Two returns with Fleetwood Town hosting Port Vale. Match starts March 26, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fleetwood Town host Port Vale at Highbury Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.