Fleetwood Town 1–1 Port Vale: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Port Vale

3/11/2023

League One · Round 36Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Fleetwood Town49%

×Draw26%

Port Vale25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchPort Vale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.99

Fleetwood Town

1.51

Port Vale

0.99

Fleetwood Town creates 53% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 72 away

1.27

creates per match

0.82

1.17

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.27

Port Vale

0.82

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.17

Port Vale

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Port Vale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Port Vale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

75%

Fleetwood Town or Port Vale

74%

Draw or Port Vale

51%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

25%

Port Vale wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

78%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

44%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

19%

Port Vale 1+ goals

63%

Port Vale 2+ goals

26%

Port Vale 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

66%

Port Vale (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.17 · 135 matches

Port Vale away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.75 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.27 + Port Vale defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.51

Port Vale attack 0.82 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

49%

level

26%

Port Vale scores more

25%

Fleetwood Town at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff