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Fleetwood Town vs Oldham — League Two 2024

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
Preview
18:45
Oldham
Oldham
9/1/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Highbury Stadium
Big match
40%
Fleetwood Town
model favours
40%27%34%

Fleetwood Town win just 19% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fleetwood Town40%
×Draw27%
Oldham34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.34
Oldham
1.21

Fleetwood Town creates 11% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 47 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.26
Oldham
1.23

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
1.20
Oldham
1.43

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par
Oldham+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Oldham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
66%
Fleetwood Town or Oldham
73%
Draw or Oldham
60%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
18%
Oldham wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
74%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
39%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
15%
Oldham 1+ goals
70%
Oldham 2+ goals
34%
Oldham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
54%
Oldham (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.20 · 46 matches

Oldham away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.43 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.26 + Oldham defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.34

Oldham attack 1.23 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
40%
level
27%
Oldham scores more
34%

Fleetwood Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 5 of the last 5 meetings
  • Style contrast — Fleetwood Town play Defensively solid, Oldham Attack-heavy
  • Fleetwood Town fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.6 expected)
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Fleetwood Town
Defensively solid
Oldham
Attack-heavy
48%Possession47%
69%Pass accuracy63%
11.6ShotsBiggest gap12.8
1.63xG1.61
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Fleetwood TownOldham

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Fleetwood Town
3
Draws
0
Oldham
Avg goals: 3.6BTTS: 100%
1–11–15–22–12–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
WDDD
Oldham
WLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fleetwood Town face Oldham (League Two)

League Two returns with Fleetwood Town hosting Oldham. Match starts September 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fleetwood Town host Oldham at Highbury Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.