Fleetwood Town 2–2 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Morecambe

R. Coughlan 45+3'

R. Graydon 34'

H. Hope 86'

Y. Songo'o 74'

9/23/2024

League Two · Round 7Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Fleetwood Town46%

×Draw26%

Morecambe29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.14

Fleetwood Town

1.52

Morecambe

1.14

Fleetwood Town creates 33% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 93 away

1.31

creates per match

1.17

1.11

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.31

Morecambe

1.17

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.11

Morecambe

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

71%

Fleetwood Town or Morecambe

74%

Draw or Morecambe

54%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

23%

Morecambe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

78%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

45%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

20%

Morecambe 1+ goals

68%

Morecambe 2+ goals

32%

Morecambe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

62%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.31 + Morecambe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.52

Morecambe attack 1.17 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

46%

level

26%

Morecambe scores more

29%

Fleetwood Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

S. Moore

Morecambe · G

8.9

Match Events

34'

38'

40'

42'

45+5'

45+3'

R. Coughlan↳ P. Patterson

46'

M. Dackers← H. Macadam

46'

K. Harrack← L. Angol

46'

J. Slew← R. Williams

46'

D. Tutonda← C. Jones

58'

M. Virtue-Thick← D. Mayor

58'

K. Harratt← R. Coughlan

63'

Ben Tollitt

71'

James Bolton

74'

R. Broom← M. Helm

74'

Mackenzie Hunt← P. Patterson

74'

79'

81'

84'

86'

89'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodMorecambe

Overview

53%Possession47%

25Total Shots9

5Corners1

14Fouls12

Shots

25Total Shots9

12On Target4

10Off Target3

3Blocked2

15Inside Box6

10Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

346Total Passes302

269Accurate Passes204

78%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

Discipline

14Fouls12

6Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1