Fleetwood Town 1–0 Morecambe: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Morecambe

Carlos Gomes 13'

2/25/2023

League One · Round 34Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fleetwood Town54%

×Draw24%

Morecambe22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.01

Fleetwood Town

1.73

Morecambe

1.01

Fleetwood Town creates 71% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 46 away

1.30

creates per match

0.89

1.14

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.30

Morecambe

0.89

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.14

Morecambe

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

78%

Fleetwood Town or Morecambe

76%

Draw or Morecambe

46%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

30%

Morecambe wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

82%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

52%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

25%

Morecambe 1+ goals

64%

Morecambe 2+ goals

27%

Morecambe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

71%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.14 · 138 matches

Morecambe away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.30 + Morecambe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.73

Morecambe attack 0.89 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

54%

level

24%

Morecambe scores more

22%

Fleetwood Town at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

A. Nsiala

Fleetwood Town · D

7.5

Match Events

13'

Carlos Gomes↳ J. Stockley

42'

Liam Shaw

46'

S. Robertson← Carlos Gomes

46'

D. Andrew← B. Sarpong-Wiredu

59'

M. Melbourne← L. Gibson

59'

A. Hunter← M. Mellon

70'

C. Hayes← P. Patterson

71'

74'

80'

82'

85'

J. Marriott← J. Stockley

85'

D. Simeu← J. Weir

88'

Cian Hayes

90'

J. Earl← L. Warrington

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodMorecambe

Overview

50%Possession50%

8Total Shots8

5Corners7

9Fouls6

Shots

8Total Shots8

3On Target1

4Off Target4

1Blocked3

7Inside Box3

1Outside Box5

Passing

50%Possession50%

362Total Passes359

254Accurate Passes255

70%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls6

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0