Fleetwood Town 1–1 Milton Keynes Dons

Fleetwood Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Milton Keynes Dons

5/1/2021

League One · Round 45Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Fleetwood Town39%

×Draw27%

Milton Keynes Dons34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchMilton Keynes Dons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.22

Fleetwood Town

1.33

Milton Keynes Dons

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 95 away

1.27

creates per match

1.27

1.17

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.27

Milton Keynes Dons

1.27

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.17

Milton Keynes Dons

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

66%

Fleetwood Town or Milton Keynes Dons

73%

Draw or Milton Keynes Dons

61%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

18%

Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

74%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

38%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

15%

Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals

70%

Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals

34%

Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

54%

Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.17 · 135 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.27 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.33

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

39%

level

27%

Milton Keynes Dons scores more

34%

Fleetwood Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff