Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fleetwood Town vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
Preview
15:00
Grimsby
Grimsby
2/6/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 29Highbury Stadium
Big match
39%
Fleetwood Town
model favours
39%26%35%

Fleetwood Town win just 19% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Fleetwood Town39%
×Draw26%
Grimsby35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.36
Grimsby
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.61
Grimsby
1.62

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
0.91
Grimsby
1.11

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.43scores less
Grimsby-0.02on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
65%
Fleetwood Town or Grimsby
74%
Draw or Grimsby
61%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
18%
Grimsby wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
74%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
39%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
16%
Grimsby 1+ goals
72%
Grimsby 2+ goals
36%
Grimsby 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
53%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.11 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.61 + Grimsby defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.36

Grimsby attack 1.62 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
39%
level
26%
Grimsby scores more
35%

Fleetwood Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Style contrast — Fleetwood Town play Defensively solid, Grimsby Attack-heavy

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Fleetwood Town
Defensively solid
Grimsby
Attack-heavy
50%Possession52%
68%Pass accuracy68%
12.0Shots12.6
1.41xGBiggest gap1.62
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Fleetwood TownGrimsby

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

4
Fleetwood Town
0
Draws
3
Grimsby
Avg goals: 1.7BTTS: 29%
0–10–11–21–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
WWWWD
Grimsby
DDWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fleetwood Town face Grimsby (League Two)

League Two returns with Fleetwood Town hosting Grimsby. Match starts February 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fleetwood Town host Grimsby at Highbury Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.