Fleetwood Town 2–0 Chesterfield: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chesterfield

K. Harratt 87'

M. Virtue-Thick 28'

12/26/2024

League Two · Round 22Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Fleetwood Town36%

×Draw26%

Chesterfield38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchChesterfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.38

Fleetwood Town

1.34

Chesterfield

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 30 away

1.42

creates per match

1.40

1.35

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.42

Chesterfield

1.40

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.35

Chesterfield

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Chesterfield+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Chesterfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

62%

Fleetwood Town or Chesterfield

74%

Draw or Chesterfield

64%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

16%

Chesterfield wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

74%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

39%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

15%

Chesterfield 1+ goals

75%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

40%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

49%

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.35 · 26 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.42 + Chesterfield defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.34

Chesterfield attack 1.40 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

36%

level

26%

Chesterfield scores more

38%

Chesterfield at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Bolton

Fleetwood Town · D

7.7

Match Events

28'

M. Virtue-Thick↳ R. Graydon

38'

Elliot Bonds

48'

Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu

61'

Kane Drummond

71'

R. Bennett← B. Wiredu

72'

Finley Potter

74'

L. Shaw← E. Bonds

74'

J. Lynch← D. Harrington

80'

Harvey Araujo

82'

K. Harratt← R. Coughlan

82'

O. Devonport← R. Graydon

83'

D. Oldaker← O. Banks

84'

B. Hobson← J. Berry-McNally

84'

G. Elliott← K. Drummond

85'

B. Horton← H. Araujo

87'

K. Harratt↳ J. Lynch

90+1'

C. Cook← D. Markanday

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodChesterfield

Overview

28%Possession72%

6Total Shots12

5Corners5

15Fouls8

Shots

6Total Shots12

3On Target7

2Off Target2

1Blocked3

5Inside Box6

1Outside Box6

Passing

28%Possession72%

226Total Passes603

146Accurate Passes507

65%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1