Chesterfield 1–1 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Chesterfield

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Fleetwood Town

D. Markanday 25'

W. Davies 7'

10/18/2025

League Two · Round 13SMH Group Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Chesterfield44%

×Draw27%

Fleetwood Town29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChesterfieldExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.07

Chesterfield

1.40

Fleetwood Town

1.07

Chesterfield creates 31% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 27 away

1.57

creates per match

1.11

1.03

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Chesterfield

1.57

Fleetwood Town

1.11

allows per match

Chesterfield

1.03

Fleetwood Town

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chesterfield+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chesterfield ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chesterfield or draw

71%

Chesterfield or Fleetwood Town

73%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

56%

Winning margin

Chesterfield wins by 2+

21%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Chesterfield 1+ goals

75%

Chesterfield 2+ goals

41%

Chesterfield 3+ goals

17%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

66%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

29%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chesterfield (draw refunded)

61%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chesterfield at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chesterfield attack 1.57 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fleetwood Town attack 1.11 + Chesterfield defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chesterfield scores more

44%

level

27%

Fleetwood Town scores more

29%

Chesterfield at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chesterfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

R. Stirk

Chesterfield · M

8.0

Match Events

7'

W. Davies↳ H. Neal

25'

D. Markanday↳ R. Stirk

39'

Devan Tanton

46'

J. Donacien← D. Tanton

63'

R. Darcy← J. Berry-McNally

63'

Z. Medley← L. McCann

68'

Matthew Virtue-Thick

74'

M. Helm← M. Virtue-Thick

81'

83'

83'

90+4'

90+1'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChesterfieldFleetwood

Overview

68%Possession32%

14Total Shots6

9Corners9

5Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots6

5On Target2

3Off Target4

6Blocked0

10Inside Box5

4Outside Box1

Passing

68%Possession32%

534Total Passes250

449Accurate Passes152

84%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

5Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4