Fleetwood Town 0–2 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cambridge United

8/12/2023

League One · Round 2Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Fleetwood Town49%

×Draw26%

Cambridge United26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.03

Fleetwood Town

1.52

Cambridge United

1.03

Fleetwood Town creates 48% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 92 away

1.27

creates per match

0.89

1.17

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.27

Cambridge United

0.89

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.17

Cambridge United

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

74%

Fleetwood Town or Cambridge United

74%

Draw or Cambridge United

51%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

25%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

78%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

45%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

20%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

64%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

28%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

65%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.17 · 135 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.27 + Cambridge United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cambridge United attack 0.89 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

49%

level

26%

Cambridge United scores more

26%

Fleetwood Town at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff