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Cambridge United vs Fleetwood Town — League One 2018

Cambridge United
Cambridge United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
1/13/2024League OneLeague One · Round 28Cledara Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United38%
×Draw27%
Fleetwood Town35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambridge United
1.26
Fleetwood Town
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 133 away

creates per match

Cambridge United
1.08
Fleetwood Town
1.18

allows per match

Cambridge United
1.22
Fleetwood Town
1.44

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par
Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw
65%
Cambridge United or Fleetwood Town
73%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
62%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+
17%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals
72%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
36%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
13%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
70%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
34%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)
52%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.44 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.26

Fleetwood Town attack 1.18 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cambridge United scores more
38%
level
27%
Fleetwood Town scores more
35%

Cambridge United at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Cambridge United 2–1 Fleetwood Town

Cambridge United beat Fleetwood Town 2-1 in League One on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Cledara Abbey Stadium in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire.