Fleetwood Town 1–0 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cambridge United

S. Rooney 88'

2/21/2023

League One · Round 22Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Fleetwood Town50%

×Draw26%

Cambridge United25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.01

Fleetwood Town

1.54

Cambridge United

1.01

Fleetwood Town creates 52% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 92 away

1.30

creates per match

0.89

1.14

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.30

Cambridge United

0.89

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.14

Cambridge United

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

75%

Fleetwood Town or Cambridge United

74%

Draw or Cambridge United

50%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

25%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

79%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

45%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

20%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

64%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

27%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

67%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.14 · 138 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.78 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.30 + Cambridge United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.54

Cambridge United attack 0.89 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

50%

level

26%

Cambridge United scores more

25%

Fleetwood Town at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

B. Sarpong-Wiredu

Fleetwood Town · D

7.9

Match Events

34'

Carlos Mendes Gomes

44'

Liam Bennett

60'

P. Omochere← J. Marriott

71'

C. Hayes← J. Stockley

71'

J. Earl← A. Nsiala

78'

Lewis Warrington

78'

C. Dolan← P. Patterson

78'

H. Macadam← Carlos Gomes

88'

S. Rooney↳ J. Earl

90+5'

Josh Vela

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodCambridge

Overview

58%Possession42%

9Total Shots10

5Corners4

13Fouls6

Shots

9Total Shots10

1On Target3

3Off Target4

5Blocked3

4Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

431Total Passes314

340Accurate Passes204

79%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls6

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0