Fleetwood Town 0–0 Barrow: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Barrow

4/18/2025

League Two · Round 43Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Fleetwood Town58%

×Draw23%

Barrow19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchBarrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.89

Fleetwood Town

1.76

Barrow

0.89

Fleetwood Town creates 98% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

1.61

creates per match

0.87

0.91

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.61

Barrow

0.87

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

0.91

Barrow

1.91

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.43scores less

Barrow+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Barrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

81%

Fleetwood Town or Barrow

77%

Draw or Barrow

42%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

33%

Barrow wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

83%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

52%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

26%

Barrow 1+ goals

59%

Barrow 2+ goals

22%

Barrow 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

75%

Barrow (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.91 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.61 + Barrow defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.76

Barrow attack 0.87 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

58%

level

23%

Barrow scores more

19%

Fleetwood Town at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

S. Rooney

Fleetwood Town · M

7.5

Match Events

14'

38'

51'

51'

58'

59'

A. Pressley← E. Acquah

60'

Ben Whitfield

69'

G. Morrison← H. Neal

73'

I. Fletcher← C. Mahoney

76'

K. Moore← O. Devonport

80'

K. Kouyate← E. Newby

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodBarrow

Overview

53%Possession47%

14Total Shots8

3Corners2

17Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots8

2On Target1

8Off Target4

4Blocked3

7Inside Box3

7Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

482Total Passes424

391Accurate Passes323

81%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2