Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Barrow vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2018

Barrow
Barrow
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
T. Vassell 10'
E. Acquah 4'
12/21/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 21SO Legal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow34%
×Draw27%
Fleetwood Town38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barrow
1.18
Fleetwood Town
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Barrow
0.81
Fleetwood Town
1.15

allows per match

Barrow
1.38
Fleetwood Town
1.54

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par
Fleetwood Town-0.07on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Barrow or draw
62%
Barrow or Fleetwood Town
73%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
66%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+
14%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals
69%
Barrow 2+ goals
33%
Barrow 3+ goals
12%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
72%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
36%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)
47%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.18

Fleetwood Town attack 1.15 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Barrow scores more
34%
level
27%
Fleetwood Town scores more
38%

Fleetwood Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

42
T. VassellBarrowBarrow · D
7.9

Match Events

4'
E. Acquah↳ R. Gotts
10'
T. Vassell
40'
Kian Spence
46'
P. Smith← M. Helm
66'
L. Shaw← M. Virtue-Thick
66'
O. Devonport← D. Mayor
82'
Rhys Bennett
84'
A. Dallas← E. Acquah
90+2'
S. Foley← K. Spence
90+4'
J. Tiensia← E. Newby
90+4'
C. Popov← C. Mahoney
90+1'
K. Hughes← J. Bolton

Possession

50%Barrow

Shots

14Barrow

Pass accuracy

51%Barrow

Statistics

BarrowFleetwood
Overview
50%Possession50%
14Total Shots7
9Corners5
6Fouls12
Shots
14Total Shots7
8On Target1
1Off Target1
5Blocked5
9Inside Box5
5Outside Box2
Passing
50%Possession50%
261Total Passes275
181Accurate Passes178
69%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
6Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Barrow vs Fleetwood Town

Barrow beat Fleetwood Town 2-0 in League Two on December 21, 2024.

Goals: E. Acquah (4'), T. Vassell (10').

Barrow controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at SO Legal Stadium in Barrow-in-Furness, Cumbria.