Fleetwood Town vs Accrington ST

Fleetwood Town

Preview

15:00

Accrington ST

11/28/2026

League Two · Round 17Highbury Stadium

Big match

53%

Fleetwood Town

model favours

53%25%22%

Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–0

likely score

54%

under 2.5 goals

48%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Fleetwood Town53%

×Draw25%

Accrington ST22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.92

Fleetwood Town

1.59

Accrington ST

0.92

Fleetwood Town creates 73% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.52

creates per match

0.88

0.96

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.52

Accrington ST

0.88

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

0.96

Accrington ST

1.66

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.35scores less

Accrington ST-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

78%

Fleetwood Town or Accrington ST

75%

Draw or Accrington ST

47%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

28%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

80%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

47%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

21%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

60%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

23%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

71%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 12 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.52 + Accrington ST defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.59

Accrington ST attack 0.88 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

53%

level

25%

Accrington ST scores more

22%

Fleetwood Town at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)
Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles

Fleetwood Town

Balanced

Accrington ST

Balanced

48%Possession47%

67%Pass accuracy62%

12.0Shots11.4

1.32xGBiggest gap0.91

Fleetwood TownAccrington ST

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5

Fleetwood Town

2

Draws

3

Accrington ST

Avg goals: 3.5BTTS: 80%

2–12–14–11–15–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Town

WWWWD

ST

WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff