Accrington ST 1–4 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Fleetwood Town

B. Woods 52'

Mackenzie Hunt 90'

C. Grant 85' (OG)

P. Patterson 62'

M. Helm 9'

4/1/2025

League Two · Round 40Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Accrington ST36%

×Draw27%

Fleetwood Town37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.23

Accrington ST

1.20

Fleetwood Town

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

0.97

creates per match

1.20

1.25

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Accrington ST

0.97

Fleetwood Town

1.20

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.25

Fleetwood Town

1.43

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.23scores more

Fleetwood Town-0.03on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

63%

Accrington ST or Fleetwood Town

73%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

64%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

15%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

70%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

34%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

12%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

71%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

35%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

49%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.25 · 10 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.43 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.97 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.20

Fleetwood Town attack 1.20 + Accrington ST defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Accrington ST scores more

36%

level

27%

Fleetwood Town scores more

37%

Fleetwood Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

M. Helm

Fleetwood Town · M

7.7

Match Events

9'

M. Helm

17'

S. Quirk← D. Matthews

27'

Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu

31'

Louie Marsh

39'

Conor Grant

45+3'

Benn Ward

46'

S. Whalley← J. OBrien-Whitmarsh

46'

52'

62'

62'

83'

G. Morrison← B. Wiredu

83'

Mackenzie Hunt← P. Patterson

85'

C. GrantOwn goal

86'

J. Woods← C. Grant

86'

C. Brown← K. Mooney

90+2'

Jake Thomas Batty

90+2'

F. Cross-Adair← M. Helm

90'

Mackenzie Hunt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonFleetwood

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots13

4Corners6

14Fouls9

Shots

8Total Shots13

2On Target5

4Off Target5

2Blocked3

4Inside Box8

4Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

291Total Passes353

182Accurate Passes250

63%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1