Accrington ST 1–2 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fleetwood Town

J. Woods 51'

D. E. Osong 90'

M. Helm 12'

4/11/2026

League Two · Round 43The Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Accrington ST37%

×Draw27%

Fleetwood Town36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.21

Accrington ST

1.24

Fleetwood Town

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

0.94

creates per match

1.15

1.27

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Accrington ST

0.94

Fleetwood Town

1.15

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.27

Fleetwood Town

1.54

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.24scores more

Fleetwood Town-0.07on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

64%

Accrington ST or Fleetwood Town

73%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

63%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

16%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

71%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

35%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

13%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

70%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

34%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

51%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.94 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.24

Fleetwood Town attack 1.15 + Accrington ST defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Accrington ST scores more

37%

level

27%

Fleetwood Town scores more

36%

Accrington ST at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Helm

Fleetwood Town · M

8.2

Match Events

9'

Will Davies

12'

M. Helm↳ E. Ennis

23'

C. O'Brien← D. Love

46'

J. Woods← S. Conneely

51'

J. Woods↳ S. Whalley

67'

Conor Haughey

71'

J. Davies← H. Neal

71'

J. Bolton← C. Haughey

72'

Devon Matthews

80'

D. E. Osong← W. Davies

81'

C. Brown← P. Madden

90+4'

Liam Coyle

90+3'

J. Powell← E. Ennis

90'

D. E. Osong↳ C. Evans

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonFleetwood

Overview

56%Possession44%

11Total Shots13

0.90Expected Goals (xG)1.10

4Corners8

11Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots13

2On Target6

6Off Target5

3Blocked2

6Inside Box10

5Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

353Total Passes269

244Accurate Passes166

69%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2

League Two: Accrington ST 1–2 Fleetwood Town

Fleetwood Town beat Accrington ST 2-1 in League Two on April 11, 2026.

Goals: M. Helm (12'), J. Woods (51'), D. E. Osong (90').

Accrington ST controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at The Wham Stadium in Accrington.

Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Accrington ST 1–2 Fleetwood Town