Flamurtari 4–3 Dukagjini: Result & Stats

Flamurtari

FT

4 – 3

Dukagjini

7/9/2020

Superliga · Round 29Stadiumi i Flamurtarit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Flamurtari46%

×Draw25%

Dukagjini29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlamurtariExpected goals in this matchDukagjini

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.17

Flamurtari

1.54

Dukagjini

1.17

Flamurtari creates 32% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 107 away

1.56

creates per match

0.97

1.38

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Flamurtari

1.56

Dukagjini

0.97

allows per match

Flamurtari

1.38

Dukagjini

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamurtari+0.00on par

Dukagjini+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamurtari ↓

Dukagjini →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Flamurtari or draw

71%

Flamurtari or Dukagjini

75%

Draw or Dukagjini

54%

Winning margin

Flamurtari wins by 2+

23%

Dukagjini wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Flamurtari 1+ goals

79%

Flamurtari 2+ goals

45%

Flamurtari 3+ goals

20%

Dukagjini 1+ goals

69%

Dukagjini 2+ goals

33%

Dukagjini 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Flamurtari (draw refunded)

61%

Dukagjini (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamurtari at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Dukagjini away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamurtari attack 1.56 + Dukagjini defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.54

Dukagjini attack 0.97 + Flamurtari defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Flamurtari scores more

46%

level

25%

Dukagjini scores more

29%

Flamurtari at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Flamurtari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff