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Dukagjini vs Flamurtari — Superliga 2019

Dukagjini
Dukagjini
FT
1 – 2
Flamurtari
Flamurtari
11/11/2019SuperligaSuperliga · Round 15Stadiumi 18 Qershori

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Dukagjini50%
×Draw26%
Flamurtari25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dukagjini
1.54
Flamurtari
1.00

Dukagjini creates 54% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 17 away

creates per match

Dukagjini
1.09
Flamurtari
1.00

allows per match

Dukagjini
1.00
Flamurtari
2.00

finishing

Dukagjini+0.00on par
Flamurtari+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dukagjini ↓

Flamurtari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dukagjini or draw
75%
Dukagjini or Flamurtari
74%
Draw or Flamurtari
50%

Winning margin

Dukagjini wins by 2+
26%
Flamurtari wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dukagjini 1+ goals
79%
Dukagjini 2+ goals
45%
Dukagjini 3+ goals
20%
Flamurtari 1+ goals
63%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
26%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dukagjini (draw refunded)
67%
Flamurtari (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dukagjini at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.00 · 106 matches

Flamurtari away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dukagjini attack 1.09 + Flamurtari defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Flamurtari attack 1.00 + Dukagjini defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dukagjini scores more
50%
level
26%
Flamurtari scores more
25%

Dukagjini at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dukagjini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dukagjini vs Flamurtari

Flamurtari beat Dukagjini 2-1 in Superliga on November 11, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi 18 Qershori in Klinë.