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Flamurtari vs Besëlidhja Lezhë — 1st Division 2019

Flamurtari
Flamurtari
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
12/21/20221st Division1st Division · Round 12Stadiumi Flamurtari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Flamurtari55%
×Draw26%
Besëlidhja Lezhë19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamurtari
1.52
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.78

Flamurtari creates 95% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 51 away

creates per match

Flamurtari
1.57
Besëlidhja Lezhë
0.86

allows per match

Flamurtari
0.70
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.47

finishing

Flamurtari+0.00on par
Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamurtari ↓

Besëlidhja Lezhë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Flamurtari or draw
81%
Flamurtari or Besëlidhja Lezhë
74%
Draw or Besëlidhja Lezhë
45%

Winning margin

Flamurtari wins by 2+
29%
Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Flamurtari 1+ goals
78%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
45%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
20%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
54%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
18%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Flamurtari (draw refunded)
74%
Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamurtari at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.70 · 60 matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamurtari attack 1.57 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 0.86 + Flamurtari defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Flamurtari scores more
55%
level
26%
Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
19%

Flamurtari at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Flamurtari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamurtari vs Besëlidhja Lezhë

Flamurtari and Besëlidhja Lezhë drew 2-2 in 1st Division on December 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Flamurtari in Vlorë.