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Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Flamurtari — 1st Division 2019

Besëlidhja Lezhë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Flamurtari
Flamurtari
5/7/20231st Division1st Division · Round 25Stadiumi Besëlidhja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Besëlidhja Lezhë38%
×Draw26%
Flamurtari36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.32
Flamurtari
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 55 away

creates per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.60
Flamurtari
1.27

allows per match

Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.29
Flamurtari
1.04

finishing

Besëlidhja Lezhë+0.00on par
Flamurtari+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Besëlidhja Lezhë ↓

Flamurtari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Besëlidhja Lezhë or draw
64%
Besëlidhja Lezhë or Flamurtari
74%
Draw or Flamurtari
62%

Winning margin

Besëlidhja Lezhë wins by 2+
17%
Flamurtari wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Besëlidhja Lezhë 1+ goals
73%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 2+ goals
38%
Besëlidhja Lezhë 3+ goals
15%
Flamurtari 1+ goals
72%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
37%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Besëlidhja Lezhë (draw refunded)
51%
Flamurtari (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Besëlidhja Lezhë at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.29 · 52 matches

Flamurtari away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.04 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Besëlidhja Lezhë attack 1.60 + Flamurtari defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.32

Flamurtari attack 1.27 + Besëlidhja Lezhë defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Besëlidhja Lezhë scores more
38%
level
26%
Flamurtari scores more
36%

Besëlidhja Lezhë at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Besëlidhja Lezhë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Besëlidhja Lezhë 0–3 Flamurtari

Flamurtari beat Besëlidhja Lezhë 3-0 in 1st Division on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Besëlidhja in Lezhë.