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Flamengo vs Emelec — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Flamengo
Flamengo
Pens
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Emelec
Emelec
Gabriel Barbosa 19', 10' (pen)
Rafinha -1'
Renê -1'
Bruno Henrique -1'
Giorgian De Arrascaeta -1'
Nicolás Queiroz -1'
Dixon Arroyo -1'
Gabriel Cortez -1'
Brayan Angulo -1'
8/1/2019CONMEBOL LibertadoresCONMEBOL Libertadores · 8th FinalsEstádio do Maracanã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Flamengo56%
×Draw25%
Emelec19%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo
1.62
Emelec
0.83

Flamengo creates 95% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 6 away

creates per match

Flamengo
2.41
Emelec
1.17

allows per match

Flamengo
0.49
Emelec
0.83

finishing

Flamengo+0.00on par
Emelec+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

Emelec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw
81%
Flamengo or Emelec
75%
Draw or Emelec
44%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+
30%
Emelec wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals
80%
Flamengo 2+ goals
48%
Flamengo 3+ goals
22%
Emelec 1+ goals
56%
Emelec 2+ goals
20%
Emelec 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)
75%
Emelec (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 2.41, concedes 0.49 · 39 matches

Emelec away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 2.41 + Emelec defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.62

Emelec attack 1.17 + Flamengo defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Flamengo scores more
56%
level
25%
Emelec scores more
19%

Flamengo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
RenêFlamengoFlamengo · D
7.9

Match Events

-1'
Rafinha
-1'
Renê
-1'
Bruno Henrique
-1'
Giorgian De Arrascaeta
-1'
Nicolás Queiroz
-1'
Dixon Arroyo
-1'
Gabriel Cortez
-1'
Brayan Angulo
10'
Gabriel BarbosaPenalty
19'
Gabriel Barbosa↳ Éverton Ribeiro
21'
Bruno Henrique
25'
Marlon Mejía
34'
Dixon Arroyo
40'
Joel Quintero← Jordan Jaime
58'
Giorgian De Arrascaeta← Éverton Ribeiro
64'
Bryan Carabali← Fernando Guerrero
66'
Joel Quintero
71'
Reinier← Gabriel Barbosa
83'
Orlando Berrío← Gerson
90'
Willian Arão
90'
Gustavo Cuéllar
90'
Gabriel Cortez
90'
Gabriel Cortez← Wilmer Godoy

Possession

67%Flamengo

Shots

16Flamengo

Pass accuracy

57%Flamengo

Statistics

FlamengoEmelec
Overview
67%Possession33%
16Total Shots11
6Corners8
17Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots11
4On Target1
8Off Target6
4Blocked4
11Inside Box3
5Outside Box8
Passing
67%Possession33%
497Total Passes225
414Accurate Passes139
83%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls12
3Yellow Cards4
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Flamengo vs Emelec

Flamengo beat Emelec 2-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on August 1, 2019.

Goals: Rafinha (-1'), Renê (-1'), Bruno Henrique (-1'), Giorgian De Arrascaeta (-1'), Nicolás Queiroz (-1'), Dixon Arroyo (-1'), Gabriel Cortez (-1'), Brayan Angulo (-1'), Gabriel Barbosa (10' pen, 19').

Flamengo controlled possession (67%) and registered 16 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estádio do Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro.