Emelec 2–0 Flamengo: Result & Stats

Emelec

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Flamengo

Romario Caicedo 79'

Wilmer Godoy 10'

7/25/2019

CONMEBOL Libertadores · 8th FinalsEstadio George Capwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Emelec45%

×Draw26%

Flamengo30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EmelecExpected goals in this matchFlamengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.17

Emelec

1.50

Flamengo

1.17

Emelec creates 28% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 39 away

2.00

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Emelec

2.00

Flamengo

1.33

allows per match

Emelec

1.00

Flamengo

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Emelec+0.00on par

Flamengo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Emelec ↓

Flamengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Emelec or draw

70%

Emelec or Flamengo

74%

Draw or Flamengo

55%

Winning margin

Emelec wins by 2+

22%

Flamengo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Emelec 1+ goals

78%

Emelec 2+ goals

44%

Emelec 3+ goals

19%

Flamengo 1+ goals

69%

Flamengo 2+ goals

33%

Flamengo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Emelec (draw refunded)

60%

Flamengo (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Emelec at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Flamengo away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Emelec attack 2.00 + Flamengo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Flamengo attack 1.33 + Emelec defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Emelec scores more

45%

level

26%

Flamengo scores more

30%

Emelec at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Emelec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Romario Caicedo

Emelec · D

7.7

Match Events

10'

Wilmer Godoy↳ Fernando Guerrero

13'

Fernando Guerrero

45'

Willian Arão

51'

Carlos Orejuela← Bryan Cabezas

54'

Leandro Vega

57'

Marlon Mejía← Nicolás Queiroz

57'

Lincoln← Rodinei

63'

Gerson

66'

Lucas Silva← Gerson

66'

Gustavo Cuéllar← Willian Arão

67'

Léo Duarte

79'

Romario Caicedo↳ Fernando Guerrero

80'

Bryan Carabali← Fernando Guerrero

85'

Bruno Henrique

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EmelecFlamengo

Overview

31%Possession69%

7Total Shots14

4Corners7

16Fouls16

Shots

7Total Shots14

2On Target2

2Off Target7

3Blocked5

3Inside Box5

4Outside Box9

Passing

31%Possession69%

213Total Passes479

141Accurate Passes405

66%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls16

1Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3