Flamengo 1–0 Deportivo Tachira FC: Result & Stats

Flamengo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Tachira FC

Leo Pereira 66'

5/29/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 6Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Flamengo70%

×Draw21%

Deportivo Tachira FC10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlamengoExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Tachira FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.52

Flamengo

1.85

Deportivo Tachira FC

0.52

Flamengo creates 256% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

1.90

creates per match

0.54

0.50

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Flamengo

1.90

Deportivo Tachira FC

0.54

allows per match

Flamengo

0.50

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.80

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Flamengo-0.21scores less

Deportivo Tachira FC-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo ↓

Deportivo Tachira FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Flamengo or draw

90%

Flamengo or Deportivo Tachira FC

79%

Draw or Deportivo Tachira FC

30%

Winning margin

Flamengo wins by 2+

42%

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Flamengo 1+ goals

84%

Flamengo 2+ goals

55%

Flamengo 3+ goals

28%

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals

41%

Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals

10%

Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Flamengo (draw refunded)

88%

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.50 · 13 matches

Deportivo Tachira FC away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo attack 1.90 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.85

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 0.54 + Flamengo defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Flamengo scores more

70%

level

21%

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more

10%

Flamengo at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Luiz Araujo

Flamengo · M

8.5

Match Events

34'

Wesley Franca

37'

G. de Arrascaeta

46'

Bruno Henrique← Michael

59'

G. Varela← Allan

60'

J. D. Duarte Arias← J. Balza

61'

L. Cano← B. Castillo

64'

J. Requena

66'

Leo Pereira↳ Luiz Araujo

68'

M. Cova

69'

Wallace Yan← Pedro

70'

Evertton Araujo← G. de Arrascaeta

77'

J. Castillo← J. Quintero

80'

Luiz Araujo

85'

L. Fioravanti← J. Requena

85'

L. Zuniga← D. Saggiomo

88'

Ayrton Lucas← Gerson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FlamengoDeportivo

Overview

62%Possession38%

20Total Shots8

1.30Expected Goals (xG)0.17

4Corners2

8Fouls6

Shots

20Total Shots8

9On Target2

7Off Target4

4Blocked2

9Inside Box3

11Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

590Total Passes364

527Accurate Passes293

89%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

0.69Goals Prevented0.69

Discipline

8Fouls6

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1