Deportivo Tachira FC 0–1 Flamengo: Result & Stats

Deportivo Tachira FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Flamengo

Juninho 57'

4/4/2025

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 1Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Deportivo Tachira FC35%

×Draw28%

Flamengo37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Tachira FCExpected goals in this matchFlamengo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.18

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.14

Flamengo

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.43

creates per match

0.96

1.40

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.43

Flamengo

0.96

allows per match

Deportivo Tachira FC

1.40

Flamengo

0.85

-0.83scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Deportivo Tachira FC-0.83scores less

Flamengo-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Tachira FC ↓

Flamengo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Deportivo Tachira FC or draw

63%

Deportivo Tachira FC or Flamengo

72%

Draw or Flamengo

65%

Winning margin

Deportivo Tachira FC wins by 2+

14%

Flamengo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Deportivo Tachira FC 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Tachira FC 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Tachira FC 3+ goals

11%

Flamengo 1+ goals

69%

Flamengo 2+ goals

33%

Flamengo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Tachira FC (draw refunded)

49%

Flamengo (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Tachira FC at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Flamengo away — creates 0.96, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Tachira FC attack 1.43 + Flamengo defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.14

Flamengo attack 0.96 + Deportivo Tachira FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Tachira FC scores more

35%

level

28%

Flamengo scores more

37%

Flamengo at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Flamengo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

G. Varela

Flamengo · D

8.2

Match Events

41'

Roberto Rosales

45+1'

Maurice Cova

56'

J. Balza← B. Castillo

56'

Alex Sandro← Ayrton Lucas

56'

Allan← N. de la Cruz

56'

Juninho← Michael

57'

Juninho↳ Bruno Henrique

63'

Léo Pereira

70'

Wallace Yan← Bruno Henrique

72'

L. Cano← M. Cova

80'

Pablo Camacho

80'

J. Ortiz← C. Sosa

81'

J. Castillo← E. Tamiche

86'

Joao Victor← Everton

87'

Juan Manuel Requena

90+5'

Mauro Maidana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoFlamengo

Overview

38%Possession62%

6Total Shots12

0.23Expected Goals (xG)1.46

2Corners4

14Fouls7

Shots

6Total Shots12

2On Target4

4Off Target6

0Blocked2

2Inside Box9

4Outside Box3

Passing

38%Possession62%

360Total Passes610

285Accurate Passes536

79%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

0.18Goals Prevented0.18

Discipline

14Fouls7

5Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Deportivo Tachira FC 0–1 Flamengo

Flamengo beat Deportivo Tachira FC 1-0 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 4, 2025.

Goals: Juninho (57').

Flamengo controlled possession (62%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Polideportivo de Pueblo Nuevo in San Cristóbal.

Deportivo Tachira FC vs Flamengo — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Deportivo Tachira FC 0–1 Flamengo