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Flamengo RJ U17 vs Atlético Mineiro U17 — Copa do Brasil U17 2025

Flamengo RJ U17
Flamengo RJ U17
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Mineiro U17
Atlético Mineiro U17advanced
3/10/2026Copa do Brasil U17Copa do Brasil U17 · Round of 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Flamengo RJ U1746%
×Draw19%
Atlético Mineiro U1735%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamengo RJ U17
2.54
Atlético Mineiro U17
2.23

Flamengo RJ U17 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Flamengo RJ U17
3.40
Atlético Mineiro U17
2.67

allows per match

Flamengo RJ U17
1.80
Atlético Mineiro U17
1.67

finishing

Flamengo RJ U17+0.00on par
Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 85Under: 1585%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 82No: 1882%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamengo RJ U17 ↓

Atlético Mineiro U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Flamengo RJ U17 or draw
65%
Flamengo RJ U17 or Atlético Mineiro U17
81%
Draw or Atlético Mineiro U17
54%

Winning margin

Flamengo RJ U17 wins by 2+
28%
Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Flamengo RJ U17 1+ goals
92%
Flamengo RJ U17 2+ goals
72%
Flamengo RJ U17 3+ goals
46%
Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals
89%
Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals
65%
Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Flamengo RJ U17 (draw refunded)
56%
Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamengo RJ U17 at home — creates 3.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Atlético Mineiro U17 away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamengo RJ U17 attack 3.40 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.54

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 2.67 + Flamengo RJ U17 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Flamengo RJ U17 scores more
46%
level
19%
Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more
35%

Flamengo RJ U17 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Flamengo RJ U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamengo RJ U17 vs Atlético Mineiro U17

Atlético Mineiro U17 beat Flamengo RJ U17 3-2 in Copa do Brasil U17 on March 10, 2026.