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Atlético Mineiro U17 vs Flamengo RJ U17 — Copa do Brasil U17 2025

Atlético Mineiro U17
Atlético Mineiro U17advanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Flamengo RJ U17
Flamengo RJ U17
3/4/2026Copa do Brasil U17Copa do Brasil U17 · Round of 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Atlético Mineiro U1764%
×Draw22%
Flamengo RJ U1714%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mineiro U17
1.88
Flamengo RJ U17
0.75

Atlético Mineiro U17 creates 151% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro U17
2.00
Flamengo RJ U17
1.00

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro U17
0.50
Flamengo RJ U17
1.75

finishing

Atlético Mineiro U17+0.00on par
Flamengo RJ U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 51Over: 4951%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No: 55Yes: 4555%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro U17 ↓

Flamengo RJ U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro U17 or draw
86%
Atlético Mineiro U17 or Flamengo RJ U17
78%
Draw or Flamengo RJ U17
36%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro U17 wins by 2+
38%
Flamengo RJ U17 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro U17 1+ goals
85%
Atlético Mineiro U17 2+ goals
56%
Atlético Mineiro U17 3+ goals
29%
Flamengo RJ U17 1+ goals
53%
Flamengo RJ U17 2+ goals
17%
Flamengo RJ U17 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro U17 (draw refunded)
82%
Flamengo RJ U17 (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro U17 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Flamengo RJ U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro U17 attack 2.00 + Flamengo RJ U17 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Flamengo RJ U17 attack 1.00 + Atlético Mineiro U17 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Atlético Mineiro U17 scores more
64%
level
22%
Flamengo RJ U17 scores more
14%

Atlético Mineiro U17 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa do Brasil U17: Atlético Mineiro U17 1–0 Flamengo RJ U17

Atlético Mineiro U17 beat Flamengo RJ U17 1-0 in Copa do Brasil U17 on March 4, 2026.