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Fløya vs Alta II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Fløya
Fløya
FT
6 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Alta II
Alta II
L. L. Bendiksen 90'
S. Henriksen 88'
S. Fitzgerald 87'
N. K. Olsen 71'
T. J. Isaksen 43'
A. Jorgensen Bergmo 11'
J. A. Amundsen 56'
8/24/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 17Fløyabanen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fløya68%
×Draw15%
Alta II17%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fløya
3.19
Alta II
1.57

Fløya creates 103% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fløya
2.46
Alta II
1.46

allows per match

Fløya
1.69
Alta II
3.92

finishing

Fløya+0.00on par
Alta II+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fløya ↓

Alta II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Fløya or draw
83%
Fløya or Alta II
85%
Draw or Alta II
32%

Winning margin

Fløya wins by 2+
49%
Alta II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fløya 1+ goals
96%
Fløya 2+ goals
82%
Fløya 3+ goals
60%
Alta II 1+ goals
79%
Alta II 2+ goals
46%
Alta II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Fløya (draw refunded)
81%
Alta II (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fløya at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Alta II away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fløya attack 2.46 + Alta II defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 3.19

Alta II attack 1.46 + Fløya defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Fløya scores more
68%
level
15%
Alta II scores more
17%

Fløya at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Fløya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
A. Jorgensen Bergmo
43'
T. J. Isaksen
56'
J. A. Amundsen
71'
N. K. Olsen
87'
S. Fitzgerald
88'
S. Henriksen
90'
L. L. Bendiksen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fløya vs Alta II

Fløya beat Alta II 6-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on August 24, 2025.

Goals: A. Jorgensen Bergmo (11'), T. J. Isaksen (43'), J. A. Amundsen (56'), N. K. Olsen (71'), S. Fitzgerald (87'), S. Henriksen (88'), L. L. Bendiksen (90').

The match was played at Fløyabanen in Tromsø.