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Alta II vs Fløya — 3. Division - Girone 1 2021

Alta II
Alta II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fløya
Fløya
N. Martynenko 79'
V. I. Vistnes 75'
M. Opgard 36'
L. L. Bendiksen 87'
6/29/20253. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Group 1 - 12SmartDok Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Alta II33%
×Draw18%
Fløya48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alta II
2.34
Fløya
2.80

Fløya creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Alta II
1.92
Fløya
2.38

allows per match

Alta II
3.23
Fløya
2.77

finishing

Alta II+0.00on par
Fløya+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alta II ↓

Fløya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Alta II or draw
52%
Alta II or Fløya
82%
Draw or Fløya
67%

Winning margin

Alta II wins by 2+
18%
Fløya wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Alta II 1+ goals
90%
Alta II 2+ goals
67%
Alta II 3+ goals
41%
Fløya 1+ goals
94%
Fløya 2+ goals
76%
Fløya 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Alta II (draw refunded)
41%
Fløya (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alta II at home — creates 1.92, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

Fløya away — creates 2.38, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alta II attack 1.92 + Fløya defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.34

Fløya attack 2.38 + Alta II defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Alta II scores more
33%
level
18%
Fløya scores more
48%

Fløya at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fløya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
M. Opgard
75'
V. I. Vistnes
79'
N. Martynenko
87'
L. L. Bendiksen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Alta II 3 – 1 Fløya

Alta II beat Fløya 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on June 29, 2025.

Goals: M. Opgard (36'), V. I. Vistnes (75'), N. Martynenko (79'), L. L. Bendiksen (87').

The match was played at SmartDok Arena in Alta.