FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2–2 Rīgas FS: Result & Stats

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rīgas FS

1/22/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius48%

×Draw23%

Rīgas FS29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Zalgiris VilniusExpected goals in this matchRīgas FS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.41

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.86

Rīgas FS

1.41

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 32% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

2.33

creates per match

1.60

1.22

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

2.33

Rīgas FS

1.60

allows per match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius

1.22

Rīgas FS

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Rīgas FS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Zalgiris Vilnius ↓

Rīgas FS →

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or draw

71%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius or Rīgas FS

77%

Draw or Rīgas FS

52%

Winning margin

FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+

27%

Rīgas FS wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals

84%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals

55%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals

28%

Rīgas FS 1+ goals

76%

Rīgas FS 2+ goals

41%

Rīgas FS 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)

62%

Rīgas FS (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

Rīgas FS away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 2.33 + Rīgas FS defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.86

Rīgas FS attack 1.60 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more

48%

level

23%

Rīgas FS scores more

29%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff